圣诞节至春节，恒生指数近15年上涨概率达80%！

Group 1 - The latest recommendation from the GF Strategy Team suggests paying early attention to the initiation of the "spring rally" in the Hong Kong stock market, which is influenced by overseas liquidity and typically starts around December 22 and lasts until the Lunar New Year [1] - Over the past 15 years (2011-2025), the Hang Seng Index has shown an 80.0% probability of rising from Christmas to just before the Lunar New Year, with a median increase of approximately 4.7% and an average increase of about 3.8% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index exhibits similar characteristics, with a 72.7% probability of rising during the same period, a median increase of around 6.3%, and an average increase of approximately 4.7% [1] Group 2 - The largest ETF tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index is the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180.SH), and attention can also be given to the "enhanced version" of the Hang Seng Technology, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Fund (159101.SZ) [2] - The enhanced ETF has a different allocation strategy, reducing exposure to consumer retail while increasing allocation to pharmaceutical biotechnology and hardware equipment, with a single stock weight limit of up to 15%, providing greater flexibility [2] - The internet and innovative pharmaceuticals are identified as core assets in the Hong Kong market, with low crowding recently and catalysts for growth due to breakthroughs in AI large model technology and significant contracts in innovative pharmaceuticals [2]