12月15日白银早评：美联储内部仍争论不休 银价冲高跳水

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and economic data releases. Group 1: Market Data - As of December 15, the dollar index is trading around 98.446, while spot silver opened at $61.79 per ounce and is currently around $61.96 per ounce. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 14,500 yuan per kilogram, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 14,498 yuan per kilogram [1] - On December 12, silver ETF holdings increased by 19.74 tons to 16,102.9 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on monetary policy, with Goolsbee suggesting to wait for more data before considering rate cuts, while Schmid emphasized that inflation remains too high, advocating for a restrictive monetary policy [3] - Paulson highlighted a focus on employment risks, indicating that monetary policy remains restrictive, and Hamak noted a preference for a slightly more restrictive policy stance [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Former President Trump indicated a preference for either former Fed Governor Warsh or NEC Director Hassett to succeed the current Fed Chair [4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the U.S. and Europe do not support Ukraine's NATO membership, suggesting a compromise for security guarantees, with discussions on a "peace plan" continuing [4] Group 4: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $57.86 last week, hitting a low of $57.276 before a strong rally influenced by fundamentals, reaching a high of $64.696, and closing at $61.947, forming a long upper shadow on a bullish candlestick [5] - Current trading strategies include holding positions at 37.8 and 38.8, with stop-loss adjustments at 63 and targets set at 62, 61.5, and 61, while preparing to exit if prices break below 60.5-60.1 [5]