煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依旧

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of recovery towards the target price range of 800-860 RMB/ton for thermal coal [2][3]. Group 1: Thermal Coal Market - As of December 12, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 753 RMB/ton, down 38 RMB/ton from the previous week, while the Guangzhou port price is 815 RMB/ton, achieving the previously indicated profit-sharing target of 750 RMB [1][2]. - Despite recent price declines, the overall upward trend is expected to continue due to tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly as the energy demand season approaches with colder weather [2][3]. - Supply constraints are driven by ongoing crackdowns on overproduction and safety inspections, while demand is rising due to early heating needs and increased industrial activity [2][3]. Group 2: Coking Coal Market - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang port is 1630 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July, with coking coal futures rising from 719 RMB to 1017 RMB, a cumulative increase of 41.5% [1][2]. - The price of coking coal is closely correlated with thermal coal prices, maintaining a consistent ratio of 2.4 times [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Logic - The price recovery for thermal coal is expected to follow a four-step process, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a profit-sharing equilibrium for coal and power companies, with a target price of around 750 RMB by 2025 [3]. - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices based on the ratio to thermal coal prices, suggesting potential prices of 1608 RMB to 2064 RMB depending on thermal coal price movements [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is positioned for a rebound due to historical low prices and improving supply-demand fundamentals, with both thermal and coking coal expected to show upward price elasticity [4]. - Companies are maintaining high dividend payouts, with several listed coal companies announcing interim dividend plans, indicating a dual logic of cyclical recovery and stable dividends [4]. - Key investment lines include cyclical logic with companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal, dividend logic with China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, diversification with Shenhuo and Electric Power Investment, and growth logic with Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [4].