中央经济工作会议召开 创金合信基金魏凤春：政策延续扩张 存量增量并重

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing emphasizes the continuation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies for the upcoming year, signaling a focus on economic recovery and stability amid external uncertainties [1][6]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is expected to maintain a relatively stable total expenditure while optimizing the structure and revitalizing existing resources, utilizing special bonds and policy financing to support key areas [2][8]. - Consumption vouchers and tax incentives will be employed to stimulate resident consumption [2][8]. Monetary Policy - Interest rate cuts may still be necessary to ensure reasonable price recovery and change the persistent low inflation expectations, while also lowering financing costs for the real economy [2][8]. - The monetary policy will focus on stabilizing the exchange rate and adjusting financial regulations to restore the transmission from loose monetary policy to credit expansion [2][8]. Domestic Demand - The conference prioritizes "expanding domestic demand" as a key task, viewing it as a strategic necessity to counterbalance external uncertainties and enhance internal circulation [3][9]. - The core of expanding domestic demand lies in consumption rather than investment, requiring collaboration among enterprises, government, and residents to create a robust domestic market [3][9]. Innovation and New Growth Drivers - Future new growth drivers will focus on digital economy, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and renewable energy, among others [4][9]. - The capital market is expected to support innovation through pricing, financing, and mergers and acquisitions, facilitating the integration of technological achievements into the industry [4][9]. Reform for High-Quality Development - Key areas for reform include the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law, the establishment of a unified national market, and financial market reforms to enhance direct financing [5][10]. - Effective markets require a proactive government that clearly defines boundaries to prevent overreach and ensure high-quality development [5][10]. Risk Management - The approach to risk management should avoid piecemeal solutions and instead focus on comprehensive debt restructuring to create space for credit expansion [6][10]. - Strengthening accountability and recovery mechanisms in risk management is essential to balance growth and risk prevention [6][10]. International Cooperation - Areas for deepened cooperation include digital trade, green economy, and high-end manufacturing, presenting various investment opportunities [7][11]. - Investment opportunities are identified in cross-border e-commerce, renewable energy, and infrastructure projects along the Belt and Road Initiative [7][11]. Capital Market Opportunities - The development of county-level economies, green transformation, and long-term care insurance systems are expected to open up capital market opportunities in infrastructure, renewable energy, and healthcare services [8][12]. - Specific investment opportunities include supply chain services, smart logistics, and green building technologies [8][12].