日银加息预期飙升 美联储政策分歧加剧

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently at 155.82, showing a narrow fluctuation, primarily influenced by the policy dynamics between the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1] - The market is focused on the BOJ's monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75% [1] - A Reuters survey indicates that 90% of economists expect the BOJ to raise rates, which would narrow the interest rate differential between Japan and the US [1] Group 2 - Concerns about unwinding yen carry trades are rising, with the total scale of such trades reaching 142 trillion yen (approximately 930 billion USD) [2] - If the BOJ raises rates, it could trigger a sell-off in assets due to the unwinding of carry trades, further lowering the USD/JPY exchange rate [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts the BOJ will raise rates in December, forecasting the USD/JPY to gradually test the support level of 154.40, while Goldman Sachs suggests waiting for wage data before adjusting positions [2] Group 3 - The BOJ's rate decision on December 19 and the Fed's policy signals will be crucial for determining the direction of the exchange rate [3] - If the BOJ raises rates and the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, the USD/JPY could test support levels of 154.40 or even 151.35 [3] - In the medium to long term, if the BOJ begins a rate hike cycle while the Fed enters a rate-cutting phase, the narrowing interest rate differential could lead to a downward trend in the exchange rate [3]