英镑窄幅震荡 英央行降息预期

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and policy divergence following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, alongside adjustments in market sentiment due to reduced uncertainty in UK fiscal policy [1][2][3] Group 1: Bank of England and Monetary Policy - The expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England has intensified, with market pricing indicating a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [1] - The Bank of England has already completed its fifth rate cut since August 2025, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.00%, and has signaled a potential continuation of gradual rate cuts [1] - Internal divisions within the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee reflect a dilemma between high inflation and weak economic growth, with recent decisions showing a close vote of 5 to 4 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has completed its third rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, but significant policy disagreements remain, with some members advocating for maintaining rates or even resuming rate hikes [2] - The market has priced in the recent rate cut, but there is a prevailing expectation of a "hawkish cut" signal from the Fed, suggesting a potential pause in easing by early 2026, which supports the USD and limits GBP's upward momentum [2] Group 3: UK Economic and Fiscal Dynamics - The UK Chancellor's autumn budget has alleviated some market uncertainties, revealing a fiscal buffer of approximately £22 billion, which has restored investor confidence and reduced GBP short positions [3] - However, the budget's austerity measures may constrain economic growth potential, and future growth expectations for the UK have been downgraded, raising concerns for the long-term trajectory of the GBP [3] - The UK's consumer inflation rate was recorded at 3.8% in September, nearly double the Bank of England's target of 2%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that complicate policy adjustments [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Short-term Outlook - The GBP/USD is currently in a consolidation range of 1.3250-1.3380, with support near 1.3250 and resistance around 1.3350-1.3380 [3] - A breakout above 1.3380 could lead to a test of the 1.3400 target, while a drop below 1.3250 may result in a pullback to the 1.3180-1.3200 region [3] - The upcoming decisions from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve will be crucial for determining the exchange rate direction in the short term [4]