澳元震荡走高 澳央行鹰派转向成核心支撑

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar (USD), driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance and rising inflation risks leading to interest rate hike expectations [1] - The RBA maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% for the fourth consecutive time, with indications that rate cuts are unlikely in the foreseeable future, reinforcing market expectations for potential rate hikes [1] - Australia's CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year in October, exceeding expectations, which has strengthened the market's anticipation of rate hikes, with nearly a 50% probability of a rate increase by March next year [1] Group 2 - The Australian economy is showing positive signs, with economic activity recovering due to strong consumer and investment demand, alongside a rebound in the real estate market [2] - The labor market is tightening, with a gradual increase in the unemployment rate and slowing job growth, although unit labor cost growth remains high [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is currently trading within a range of 0.6630-0.6660, with potential resistance levels at 0.6680-0.6700 if it stabilizes above 0.6650 [2] Group 3 - In the medium to long term, if the RBA initiates a rate hike cycle while the Federal Reserve maintains a loose monetary policy, the widening interest rate differential may lead to a phase of appreciation for the AUD against the USD [3] - Conversely, if Australia's economic recovery falls short of expectations and inflation pressures ease, the RBA's hawkish stance may soften, leading to a range-bound trading scenario for the AUD/USD between 0.65-0.67 [3] - Global commodity cycles and the trajectory of the Chinese economy remain critical influencing factors for the AUD [3]