畜牧ETF(159867)领涨2%，肉牛产能去化叠加禽流感催化价格新高

Group 1 - The Inner Mongolia beef cattle breeding industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with accelerated capacity reduction leading to a decline in feed sales and increased losses from cow breeding, resulting in a culling of livestock. The disease loss rate has risen to 4%-10%, and there is an expectation of a calf buying spree after the Spring Festival, which may drive beef prices to historical highs, benefiting related livestock companies [1] - The improvement in PPI and CPI expectations may catalyze the cyclical sector, such as livestock ETFs, due to policy and price turning points [1] - Institutional funds are continuously migrating from fixed income to equities, with a recovery in consumption boosting sentiment in the agricultural and livestock sectors [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities predicts a reversal in the livestock cycle by December 2025, noting a reduction in the parent generation of white feather chickens and structural changes, with consumption gradually shifting upwards. The total stock of grandparent generation chickens has increased by 1.34% month-on-month, and the backup grandparent stock has risen by 3.06% year-on-year [2] - According to Caitong Securities, the uncertainty in introducing grandparent chickens due to the avian influenza epidemic in Europe and the U.S. may benefit the price of the white feather chicken industry chain in the medium to long term. In early December, the average price of white feather meat chickens in major production areas increased by 1.11% month-on-month, although breeding profits remain negative [2] - Parent generation chick sales increased by 27.88% week-on-week, while prices fell by 11.83%, indicating a phase of supply and demand structural adjustment [2]