英镑走低英行降息预期压制

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing limited upward momentum against the US dollar due to strong expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England and policy divergence following the Federal Reserve's "hawkish cut" [1][2] Group 1: Bank of England Rate Cut Expectations - The market is pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England at the meeting on December 18, bringing the key rate down to 3.75% [1] - Recent weak economic data, including rising unemployment and slowing wage growth, supports the expectation for a rate cut [1] - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee has acknowledged a more balanced inflation risk, reinforcing market expectations for a rate cut [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year on December 10, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75% [2] - Despite a "hawkish cut," internal divisions among Fed officials have created uncertainty regarding future policy, limiting the strength of the US dollar and providing slight support for the pound [2] - The latest UK budget has reduced some fiscal uncertainties, leading to a temporary rise in the pound, although fiscal tightening may constrain economic growth [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Short-term Outlook - The GBP/USD is currently trading within a narrow range of 1.3354-1.3373, showing signs of consolidation [3] - Key factors influencing short-term movements include the upcoming Bank of England rate decision, statements from Federal Reserve officials, and UK economic data [3] - A rate cut by the Bank of England could pressure the pound, while a less-than-expected cut or hawkish signals could lead to a rebound [3] Group 4: Medium to Long-term Considerations - The future trajectory of GBP/USD will depend on the divergence in policy paths between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve [4] - If the Bank of England enters a prolonged rate-cutting cycle while the Fed pauses, the narrowing interest rate differential may lead to a downward trend for the pound [4] - The effectiveness of fiscal measures in the UK budget and the overall economic recovery will also play a crucial role in determining the pound's strength [4]