澳元央行政策分化成核心推手

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has been recovering against the US dollar (USD) since December 2025, with a reported exchange rate of 0.6647 as of December 15, reflecting a slight increase of 0.0007 from the previous trading day [1] - The core driver of the AUD's strength is the policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), with the RBA maintaining its benchmark interest rate and signaling a potential rate hike if inflation remains stubborn [1][2] - Following the RBA's hawkish stance on December 9, the AUD gained 0.3% to 0.6645, while the 3-year Australian government bond yield surged by 11 basis points to 4.152% [1] Group 2 - Australia's inflation rate reached 3.8% year-on-year in October, prompting the RBA to raise its medium-term inflation expectations and support its decision to rule out rate cuts [2] - The Australian economy is experiencing a dichotomy of high inflation and weak growth, with a projected budget deficit of AUD 14.39 billion over the next four years, while the labor market remains tight [2] - The technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD has risen nearly 0.8% since the low on December 9, breaking through several short-term resistance levels, with 0.6650 becoming a key level to watch [2] Group 3 - The future trajectory of the AUD/USD exchange rate is highly dependent on the policy directions of both the RBA and the Fed, as well as global risk sentiment and commodity price fluctuations [3] - Investors should closely monitor the Fed's future rate cut pace, RBA communications, and changes in inflation and labor data to gauge the sustainability of the RBA's hawkish stance [3]