日银下周加息预期 交易逆转风险

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed market sentiment regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate, driven by expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike and diverging policies between the Federal Reserve and the BoJ [1][2] - The BoJ is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% during its meeting on December 18-19, with over 90% probability according to Bloomberg's survey [1] - The Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year on December 10, reducing rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, but internal divisions within the Fed may support the USD and counteract some of the JPY's appreciation [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment remains bearish on the JPY despite rising interest rate expectations, primarily due to the significant US-Japan interest rate differential [2] - Institutions have differing forecasts for the USD/JPY exchange rate, with UBS raising its year-end target to 158, while JPMorgan predicts a decline to 148 if the Fed continues to cut rates [2] - Key short-term catalysts include the BoJ's interest rate decision, the Japanese Tankan survey, and US economic data, which could influence the exchange rate significantly [2]