Redfin(US:RDFN) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-12-15 03:01Core Viewpoint - The U.S. real estate market is expected to undergo a "major reset" by 2026, with gradual recovery in housing sales and normalization of prices, although affordability remains a challenge for many young buyers [1][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. have stabilized below 6.3%, currently at 6.22%, indicating a trend towards easing [1]. - Redfin's annual outlook report suggests that housing sales will gradually rebound, with prices becoming more normalized and affordability slowly improving [1][6]. - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts a 14% increase in existing home sales and a 4% rise in home prices by 2026, with mortgage rates expected to drop to around 6% [6]. Group 2: Regional Market Dynamics - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of significant differentiation, with some areas remaining strong while others are experiencing a slowdown [3]. - In New York City, while overall transactions are weak, desirable properties still attract competitive bids, particularly in areas with limited supply [3][4]. - Florida's market is cooling down from the pandemic highs, with a stable demand from first-time buyers and a decrease in investor activity due to high mortgage rates [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - International investors are shifting focus away from the U.S. due to high financing costs and policy uncertainties, with many opting for cash purchases to negotiate better deals [6]. - The reduction in investor activity is attributed to rising mortgage rates, which have significantly compressed profit margins for potential buyers [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The housing market is expected to enter a healthier state by 2026, with improved affordability attracting more buyers back to the market [7][8]. - Despite anticipated improvements, many potential buyers, particularly younger generations, may still find homeownership out of reach due to high living costs [7][8]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious optimism, with expectations of a stable and sustainable pace rather than extreme fluctuations seen in previous years [8].