养殖端延续亏损，行业减产意愿增强！11月仔猪出栏激增47%

Group 1 - The pork stocks showed strength in early trading on December 15, with the Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) rising by 1.56%, and key stocks such as Zhengbang Technology and Tiankang Biological increasing by over 7% [1] - Seasonal consumption during the traditional腌腊 (cured meat) peak in December has provided some support, with the average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises increasing by 3.76% week-on-week as of December 12 [3] - The national average price for external three yuan pigs was 11.48 yuan/kg on December 12, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.5%, although prices remain low overall [3] Group 2 - The industry continues to experience losses due to low pig prices, with self-breeding and purchased piglet models recording losses of 146 yuan and 75 yuan per head, respectively, marking the 11th consecutive week of industry losses [3] - In November, 14 major listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.82 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 22.48%, maintaining high absolute supply levels [3] - A notable structural change is observed, with the slaughter volume of commodity pigs decreasing by 4.67% week-on-week, while piglet slaughter volume surged by 18.46% week-on-week and increased by 47.92% year-on-year [3] Group 3 - According to Dongfang Securities, historical experience suggests that when both fat and piglet prices are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which could support long-term price increases [4] - GF Securities indicates that both fat and piglet sales are currently in a loss state, and the industry has the preliminary conditions for loss-driven capacity reduction [4] - With ongoing losses in breeding and the backdrop of "anti-involution" policies, the industry is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, presenting a left-side layout opportunity for the pig breeding sector [4] Group 4 - Looking ahead to 2026, as competition in the industry intensifies, pig companies are shifting focus from relying solely on cost competition to enhancing comprehensive competitive capabilities across the entire industry chain [5] - The Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, which covers the pig breeding industry chain and has shown significant cyclicality driven by supply and demand dynamics [5] - The management fee rate for the Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) is 0.2% per year, which is lower compared to other similar index ETFs [5]