国际黄金4322稳于高位 重磅PCE数据定降息预期

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are currently trading around $4,324 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.48% with fluctuations between $4,297.39 and $4,325.32 per ounce, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Core PCE price index, retail sales data, and Eurozone inflation data are set to be released, with the Core PCE expected to maintain a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. A higher-than-expected figure could boost gold prices due to its anti-inflation properties, while a lower figure may lead to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold [2] - Strong retail sales data would highlight U.S. economic resilience, potentially reducing rate cut expectations and negatively affecting gold prices, whereas weak data could increase safe-haven demand for gold [2] Geopolitical Factors - Signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Ukraine's President expressing willingness to abandon NATO membership as a core part of peace negotiations, have led to a short-term decline in gold prices as the risk premium decreases [2] - Ongoing tensions in Southeast Asia, including unresolved ceasefire arrangements between Thailand and Cambodia, and a terrorist attack in the Australian Jewish community, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold [2] Market Sentiment - The international gold price has increased nearly 60% in 2025, currently hovering around the $4,300 mark. There is a strong profit-taking sentiment in the market, with institutions and large investors potentially selling at high prices to lock in gains, which may lead to a short-term price correction [3] Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices rebounded strongly in November, recovering most of October's losses, which has shifted the bearish outlook to a more bullish one. However, the price needs to break above the $4,400 level to open further upside potential, or it may face resistance and horizontal adjustments [4] - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices are still above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a positive outlook, although there is resistance at the trendline [4] - Daily charts indicate a potential risk of further corrections due to a long upper shadow candlestick pattern, but the overall trend remains upward with multiple moving average supports below [4]