【豆粕年报】南美丰产定调供应宽松，价格重心承压下行

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The global soybean supply is expected to remain ample due to increased production in South America, despite a decrease in U.S. acreage. This situation, combined with a slowdown in global protein consumption growth, is likely to exert downward pressure on prices, particularly for U.S. soybeans, which will face export competition. The focus will be on the support levels between 1050-1080 [2][43]. Group 1: International Soybean Supply and Demand Outlook - The global oilseed supply is projected to increase in the 2025/26 year, with ending stocks expected to rise by approximately 2 million tons year-on-year [12]. - The increase in oilseed production will primarily come from canola, while soybean production is expected to decline slightly, although soybean crushing demand remains strong [12][13]. - The U.S. soybean export outlook for 2025/26 is pessimistic, with potential downward adjustments anticipated for export estimates and ending stocks [14]. Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Supply and Demand Outlook - China's soybean imports are expected to stabilize at around 10.5 million tons for the 2025/26 year, with a significant portion coming from Brazil [29]. - The domestic soybean meal consumption outlook is concerning due to the livestock industry's losses entering a capacity reduction phase, which may lead to a downward shift in price levels [2][43]. - The domestic market is expected to experience a weak basis and lower price levels as the industry adjusts to changing supply dynamics [2][43]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The soybean meal market is anticipated to operate within a wide range of 2600-3200, influenced by near-term supply and long-term tightening expectations [4][45]. - Price fluctuations are expected in the first half of the year due to temporary supply-demand mismatches, followed by a stabilization period as supply pressures increase [4][45]. - The Brazilian soybean market is under pressure from high export volumes, which could lead to significant downward pressure on prices if weather conditions remain favorable [24].