人民币汇率升至年内高位，2026年破“7”具有坚实基础

Core Viewpoint - The recent strength of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to the weakening of the dollar and stable year-end settlement demand, with the onshore RMB reaching a high of 7.0516 against the dollar as of December 15, 2024 [2][11]. Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reported at 97.71, with a weekly increase of 0.06 [2][3]. - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index stood at 104.28, reflecting a weekly decrease of 0.02 [2][3]. - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index was at 92.19, showing a weekly decline of 0.08 [2][3]. Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index experienced a rise followed by a decline, marking its third consecutive week of losses, influenced by market perceptions of the Federal Reserve's stance [6][15]. - The RMB appreciated against the dollar, with the onshore and offshore rates both surpassing the 7.06 mark, and the offshore RMB showing a weekly increase of 0.22% [6][15]. Future Outlook on RMB - Analysts predict a significant likelihood of the RMB breaking the 7 mark against the dollar by 2026, driven by reduced interest rate differentials due to Federal Reserve rate cuts [7][16]. - The RMB's long-term appreciation is supported by factors such as improved product competitiveness, optimized trade structures, and balanced capital flows [7][16]. - Foreign institutions, including UBS and Citigroup, anticipate the RMB may gradually approach 6.9, supported by purchasing power parity and trade surpluses [7][16]. Predictions from Financial Institutions - Deutsche Bank forecasts the RMB to reach 6.7 against the dollar by the end of 2026 and 6.5 by 2027 [8][17]. - Standard Chartered highlights the acceleration of RMB internationalization and current account surpluses as key factors for steady appreciation [8][17].