张津镭:黄金高位震荡待非农破局 周初关注4340关键压力

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence among Federal Reserve officials has led to market volatility, impacting gold prices significantly, with a daily fluctuation of nearly $100, yet still recording a weekly gain [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which will include delayed data from October and November due to government shutdowns, potentially providing clearer signals for the economy and employment [1][5]. - The internal conflict within the Federal Reserve has shifted market expectations from a one-sided view on easing policies, weakening the basis for a continued surge in gold prices [6][7]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the unresolved Russia-Ukraine situation and the indefinite freezing of Russian central bank assets by the EU, are contributing to a sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. - Additional regional conflicts, including the Thailand-Cambodia border situation and a severe terrorist attack in Sydney, Australia, are also maintaining a flow of risk-averse capital into the gold market [6][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold is expected to face resistance around the 4340-30 range; if this level holds, the market may enter a period of consolidation or await the non-farm data for direction [2][6]. - A sustained move above 4340 could negate the impact of recent price corrections, potentially leading to a renewed bullish trend, although this state may not be beneficial for trading strategies [2][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to remain in a state of fluctuation until key economic data, including the non-farm payroll and CPI reports, are released, which will determine whether concerns about recession or persistent inflation dominate [7]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest selling gold at 4330-4332 with a stop loss at 4340, targeting a drop to the 4300-4280 range, while a hold above 4340 could lead to buying opportunities targeting 4360-4380 [3][7].