李鑫恒:黄金上周总结和周初行情分析 策略建议

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices stabilizing around the $4300 mark, following a notable increase last week, driven by various global financial and geopolitical factors [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 12, gold prices rose by 0.48%, closing near $4300 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4353, marking the highest level since October 21 [1][6]. - Despite the strong performance, gold prices faced a significant drop of nearly $100 after reaching the peak, indicating volatility in market sentiment [1][6]. - The overall trend for gold last week was characterized by a series of gains, culminating in a weekly bullish candle, with four consecutive days of increases from Tuesday to Friday [1][6]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The global financial landscape is currently influenced by five main themes: the shift in Federal Reserve policy, the surge in precious metals, the divergence in central bank policies, geopolitical disturbances, and technological industry changes [1][6]. - This week, the market is anticipating critical events, including interest rate decisions from major central banks in the UK, Europe, and Japan, as well as key economic data releases such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are expected to create uncertainty in asset movements [1][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily structure of gold indicates that it has managed to stay above key moving averages, suggesting a bullish trend, although the breach of the 4280 trendline was unexpected, reflecting heightened market enthusiasm [3][8]. - The price action on Friday left some concerns, as the strong bullish momentum may not be sustainable, particularly with the upcoming non-farm data potentially influencing market direction [3][8]. - Short-term trading strategies should focus on the 4330 resistance level; if gold can maintain above this level, it may continue its upward trajectory, while failure to do so could lead to a period of consolidation around the 4290-80 support zone [4][9].