“塑料茅台”大跌，Labubu神话降温

Core Viewpoint - The market is reassessing Pop Mart, which was once considered a "capital myth," as its stock price has significantly declined from its peak due to various negative factors affecting its core IP, Labubu, and overall market sentiment [2][31][38]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock reached a historical high of 339.8 HKD in August 2025 but has since dropped over 40%, with recent trading around 190.3 HKD [2][31]. - The stock price fell by 5.2% on December 9, marking a new low in the current adjustment phase [31]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in stock price is attributed to multiple negative events, including poor sales of mini Labubu, a significant drop in second-hand market prices, and negative commentary from live streaming sessions [31][36]. - The increase in Labubu's monthly production from approximately 10 million to 50 million units has diminished its scarcity, leading to a natural price adjustment [31][40]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - The second-hand market has seen prices for hidden variants drop significantly, with some regular models selling below official retail prices [32][36]. - The perception of Labubu has shifted from being a highly sought-after item to one that is readily available, leading to a decrease in consumer urgency and enthusiasm [42][46]. Group 4: IP and Brand Challenges - Analysts express concerns about Pop Mart's reliance on a single IP, Labubu, and predict that its sales may peak earlier than expected, around 2026-2027 [34][46]. - Compared to traditional giants like Disney, Pop Mart's IP lacks depth and storytelling, which may lead to consumer fatigue [46][47]. Group 5: Production and Quality Control - The company has ramped up production significantly, with monthly output increasing from 300,000 units to 3 million units, which has affected product scarcity and quality perception [40][54]. - Quality control issues have been highlighted by consumers, with complaints about product defects becoming more common [48][52]. Group 6: Pricing Strategy - Pop Mart has adjusted its pricing strategy, raising official prices while increasing supply to reclaim profit margins previously captured by resellers [44][46]. - This dual approach of increasing production and raising prices has led to a decline in the perceived value of the products, causing consumer hesitation [44][46].