风偏调整引发回调，建议逢低增配有色板块

Investment Highlights - Precious metals are recommended to hold firmly, with COMEX gold rising by 2.42% and COMEX silver by 5.59%. The volatility of silver is high, and the rebound in London inventory may temporarily pause the short-term squeeze logic. The long-term trend of de-dollarization will not reverse, and with the inflow of ETF funds under short-term rate cut trades, the precious metals sector is expected to perform well [1] - Copper prices experienced fluctuations due to market risk appetite adjustments, with LME copper down by 0.96%. This decline is primarily driven by a decrease in risk assets linked to the U.S. market. However, the inventory relocation logic remains, and due to the downward adjustment of production expectations from Freeport and Teck Resources for 2026, a supply-demand tightness is anticipated. The expectation of increased fiscal spending by the U.S. government further reinforces this outlook, suggesting that adjustments present buying opportunities [1] - Aluminum prices fell by 0.88%, following copper price trends. Despite being in a traditional consumption off-season in December, demand from the automotive, power, and electronics sectors remains resilient. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum was reported at 584,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons, indicating a relatively low level that supports aluminum prices. Overall, the decline in aluminum prices is linked to copper, and buying opportunities are suggested amid supply disruptions and surging energy storage demand in 2026 [2] - Tin prices surged past 330,000 yuan/ton, driven by strong market sentiment and continuous capital inflow. The rise in tin prices is attributed to ongoing supply issues, with expectations of supply chain disruptions due to large-scale evacuations in the Bisie mine area. Additionally, supply risks in Nigeria and slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines contribute to the challenges. The macroeconomic benefits from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts amplify the upward potential for tin prices, with expectations that the price center will remain above 300,000 yuan in 2026 [2] - Tungsten prices continue to rise, with black tungsten concentrate reaching 370,000 yuan/ton. The decline in mine output and increased maintenance by APT companies have tightened upstream raw material supplies. In Europe, severe raw material shortages and pre-Christmas production halts have led to stagnant market trading. Traders expect European APT prices to exceed 1,000 USD/ton, with end-users accepting this price level. The short-term supply-demand imbalance in tungsten is expected to persist, with attention on next year's quota issuance and overseas mine production [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [4]