鑫元周观点 | 国内政策定调积极，海外货币宽松延续

Macro Overview - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [4][56] - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic policy, focusing on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while addressing local fiscal difficulties [4][5] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the third time this year to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with Chairman Powell stating that there is no preset path for monetary policy [9][10][56] Equity Market Insights - The December Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the expected rate cut, with a dovish overall stance and unchanged expectations for two more rate cuts in the future [2][57] - The market is expected to focus on the upcoming U.S. fiscal measures and the technical expansion of the balance sheet starting December 12, indicating potential re-inflation in the economy [2][57] - Domestic exports remain strong, and overall economic conditions are positive, with a recommendation to maintain a neutral position in equity strategies [2][57] Industry Strategies - The current trading logic is driven by structural demand led by external factors, with opportunities in overseas computing stocks and beta opportunities in non-ferrous metals [2][57] - The strategy suggests a "barbell" approach, focusing on sectors such as communications, non-ferrous metals, defense, machinery, and electronics, while being cautious in sectors like food and beverage, real estate, pharmaceuticals, construction, and computing [2][57] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced a rapid rise due to favorable policy expectations, but confidence in the market remains unstable, leading to a significant pullback [3] - The yield on 30-year, 10-year, and 1-year government bonds changed by -1 basis point, closing at 2.25%, 1.84%, and 1.39% respectively [3] - The overall bond market is expected to remain under pressure as the equity market sentiment approaches a bottom, with potential for a pulse in equity market sentiment following the Central Economic Work Conference [3][50]