Benzinga·2025-12-15 05:13Core Viewpoint - Bettors on Kalshi predict a high likelihood of Tesla achieving unsupervised autonomy, with current estimates showing over a 70% chance of success before April 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Predictions and Market Sentiment - Initially, Kalshi indicated a 54% chance of Tesla releasing unsupervised self-driving technology within the next five months, which has now increased to a 71% chance for achieving unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) by April 2026 [2]. - Bettors also forecast a 56% chance of unsupervised driverless technology being available before March 2026, and a 46% chance of FSD's release before February 2026 [2]. Group 2: Company Developments - Tesla's recent social media posts hint at an upcoming over-the-air software update that could enable unsupervised autonomous driving, contributing to the bullish sentiment among bettors [4]. - CEO Elon Musk confirmed that testing for driverless technology is currently underway, following a video showing a Tesla Model Y Robotaxi operating autonomously in Austin [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The autonomous vehicle sector is currently led by Alphabet Inc.'s Waymo, which recently achieved 14 million annual Robotaxi rides, highlighting the competitive environment Tesla is entering [7]. Group 4: Stock Performance - Tesla's stock has shown positive momentum, with a 2.70% increase to $458.96 at market close and a further rise of 0.73% to $462.32 in after-hours trading [8].