上海改善型新房市场显现韧性 市场观望情绪已有缓解

Core Insights - The overall trend in November shows a decline in housing prices across first, second, and third-tier cities, with a notable differentiation in urban levels, while core cities like Shanghai exhibit signs of localized stabilization in the housing market [1][2] Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In November, new residential property prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline in second-hand housing prices at 1.1%, indicating an expanding downward trend [1] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities saw new housing prices drop by 1.2% and second-hand housing prices by 5.8%, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines of 2.2% and 3.5% respectively [1] Group 2: Shanghai Market Performance - Shanghai's new residential property prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month and showed a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, making it the only first-tier city to achieve positive growth [1] - The price increase in Shanghai is primarily driven by larger homes, with properties over 144 square meters seeing a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, while smaller homes (90 square meters and below) had a growth of 3.8% [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai is experiencing a trend of "price for volume," with prices decreasing by 0.8% month-on-month and 4.6% year-on-year, although this is less than the average decline in first-tier cities [2] - Nationally, the average listing price for second-hand homes across 100 cities fell by 8.59% year-on-year, with the number of listings increasing to 2.678 million, a 7.8% rise [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are signs of easing market hesitation, with the proportion of users planning to buy homes in 2026 rising to 34.61%, an increase of 11.63 percentage points since mid-year [2] - The short-term market is expected to maintain a pattern of stable transaction volumes for second-hand homes while new homes are supported by core improvement demand, with a focus on the impact of policy implementation in the medium to long term [3]