烘焙行业洗牌：传统品牌不断关店 行业增长逻辑与竞争格局彻底改写

Core Insights - The traditional baking brand 85°C is experiencing a significant contraction, highlighted by the closure of its last store in Beijing on October 28, 2023, while simultaneously testing a new donut store concept [1][7] - This situation reflects a broader survival crisis faced by traditional baking brands, indicating a shift from incremental expansion to intense competition in a saturated market [1][7] Company Summary - 85°C's parent company, Meishi-KY, reported a revenue decline of 11.08% in the first half of 2025, amounting to 35.22 billion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 8.22 billion RMB), with potential losses exceeding 93 million RMB for the year if operational adjustments are not made [2][8] - The brand has initiated a strategic contraction, exiting markets like Jinan and closing stores in major cities such as Beijing, Hangzhou, and Nanjing, with over 400 stores still operational but a clear trend of closures [2][8] - In response to market pressures, 85°C is launching a new "85°C DONUt" concept, featuring a compact store model of around 10 square meters, offering 14 SKUs including 13 types of donuts and 1 sandwich, priced between 6-10.8 RMB [2][8] Industry Summary - The baking industry is witnessing a collective closure trend across various brands and regions, with notable examples including Paris Baguette and other international brands facing similar challenges in the Chinese market [3][9] - Data indicates that the average lifespan of baking stores in China is only 32 months, with 57% of stores closing within two years of opening [3][9] - The market is projected to grow, with estimates suggesting a market size of 611.07 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 662.15 billion RMB in 2025, but the distribution of growth benefits is heavily skewed [4][10] - Rising costs and product homogenization are critical challenges for traditional brands, leading to reduced profit margins and diminished appeal to younger consumers [4][10] Competitive Landscape - Tea brands are emerging as significant disruptors in the baking market, with strategies that integrate baking and tea offerings, such as Nayuki's Tea and other brands introducing baked goods alongside beverages [5][11] - Convenience stores and supermarkets are also diversifying their offerings with in-house baked products, further fragmenting the market [5][11] - A report predicts that by 2030, the market share of traditional baking stores will decrease from 77% to 71%, indicating a shift towards integrated consumer experiences [5][11]