世界黄金协会展望2026年黄金市场：多重变量驱动下的趋势与展望

Core Insights - The global gold market is expected to enter a new phase in 2026, influenced by multiple interwoven factors, including geopolitical uncertainties and structural demand from investors and central banks [6][15]. Group 1: 2025 Gold Market Performance - The gold market in 2025 showed exceptional performance, with gold prices increasing by over 60% throughout the year and achieving more than 50 historical highs [3][12]. - Key drivers of this surge included economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity costs, and trend momentum, which collectively established gold's unique position in global asset allocation [3][12]. - China played a crucial role in the demand structure for gold, with global demand reaching a historical high of 3,640 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a 41% increase year-on-year [5][14]. Group 2: 2026 Gold Market Outlook - The outlook for the gold market in 2026 suggests a dynamic balance influenced by various factors, including the potential for continued structural demand from investors and central banks, alongside pressures from global economic recovery and interest rate changes [6][15]. - Four potential scenarios for gold prices in 2026 are outlined: 1. Stable growth with a potential price fluctuation of -5% to +5% [6][15]. 2. Mild recession leading to a price increase of 5% to 15% [6][15]. 3. Severe economic downturn resulting in a price surge of 15% to 30% [6][15]. 4. Return of inflation causing a price decline of 5% to 20% [6][15]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank purchases of gold are expected to remain a significant variable in the 2026 gold market, with emerging market central banks increasing their gold reserves [9][18]. - Gold accounts for approximately 25% of global central bank foreign exchange reserves, with developed economies holding about 30% and emerging markets around 15% [9][18]. - The trend towards diversification in global reserves is likely to enhance the gold allocation by emerging market central banks, reinforcing gold's strategic value in the global monetary system [9][19].