人民币汇率升至14个月新高 专家认为双向波动仍是主基调

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent upward trend of the RMB against the USD, with both onshore and offshore RMB breaking the 7.05 mark, reaching a 14-month high on December 15 [1][7]. - As of the report's publication, the onshore RMB peaked at 7.0497 and the offshore RMB at 7.0460, marking the highest levels since October of the previous year [1][7]. Group 2 - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level for the fourth consecutive year, indicating a policy approach to prevent both excessive depreciation and appreciation of the currency [4][10]. - This policy aims to mitigate the cyclical herd behavior in the foreign exchange market and create a stable financial environment for economic recovery in the coming year [4][10]. Group 3 - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will continue to exhibit a two-way fluctuation trend in the coming year due to various internal and external uncertainties [5][11]. - A report from a foreign exchange analyst at China Merchants Bank indicates that the RMB's resilience has significantly increased, with the exchange rate showing less sensitivity to external disturbances and decoupling from the USD index [5][11]. - Positive factors such as strong exports leading to accumulated foreign exchange deposits and the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the US due to Federal Reserve rate cuts have contributed to a moderate appreciation of the RMB, with a 3% increase against the USD over the year [5][11].