OPEC helped to minimize volatility in oil trade this year: Analyst

Core Insights - OPEC has shown more stability in its forecasts compared to IEA, with minimal revisions to its numbers, indicating a closer alignment with market realities [1][2][4] - The gap between IEA and OPEC's demand growth estimates has significantly narrowed, suggesting improved accuracy in IEA's methodology, which now reflects more realistic energy policies [2][4] - The credibility of forecasting agencies is under scrutiny due to frequent revisions, impacting investor confidence in the energy sector [3][4] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Lower oil prices are expected to stimulate energy demand, as consumers tend to use more energy when prices decrease [5] - There is a long-term potential for growth in demand for oil and gas, despite the increasing focus on renewables, which will take years to scale up [6][7] - The demand for fossil fuels is projected to rise in the medium term, particularly as countries like China stockpile resources to secure long-term energy supplies [7] Regional Price Variations - In the U.S., electricity prices are rising, particularly in states with stricter regulations on energy sources, which are predominantly blue states [8][10][11] - The disparity in electricity prices between blue and red states is attributed to regulatory differences, with red states experiencing lower prices due to less stringent energy regulations [10][11] - The increasing demand from AI and data centers is expected to further strain energy resources, highlighting the ongoing need for fossil fuels to support this growth [8][11]