花旗展望2026年美股：“持续但波动的牛市格局” AI投资转向“应用层”

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report projects a "sustained but volatile bull market" for the US stock market through 2026, driven by expanding corporate earnings and deepening AI themes, with a year-end target for the S&P 500 index set at 7,700 points based on an expected EPS of $320 [1][2] US Stock Market Outlook - The report anticipates further gains in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index EPS growth forecasted at 16.3%, surpassing the market consensus of 13.7%. This growth is expected to be broad-based across sectors, including technology (26.4%), communication services (17.5%), and energy (13.3%) [2] - Small and mid-cap stocks are projected to benefit from valuation advantages, with expected EPS growth rates of 19% for the S&P 400 and 17% for the S&P 600, emerging as new growth drivers [2] Artificial Intelligence and Productivity - The construction and integration of AI infrastructure remain central themes, with a shift expected from "AI enablers" to "AI users" by 2026, which will enhance discussions around productivity improvements [3] - The AI industry is currently in a "prosperity phase," supported by limited supply and high capital expenditures, with a transition towards application-focused solutions expected to reshape market structures [3][4] Earnings Growth and Sector Performance - Strong corporate earnings are predicted to support high valuation levels, with growth expectations for most sectors exceeding market consensus, particularly in value stocks, cyclical stocks, and small/mid-cap stocks [6] - The current S&P 500 index P/E ratio is at 25, projected to slightly compress to 24, remaining within a reasonable valuation range of 20.6-25.4, supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts and a favorable liquidity environment [6]