中金：2026年如何在美A港三地中做出选择？

Group 1 - The report indicates a "seesaw" effect in the markets of the US, A-shares, and Hong Kong, with inter-market reflections and linkages observed since early 2025 [1] - In terms of liquidity, Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to US monetary easing, but outperforming requires local investors to perceive limited opportunities [1] - The fundamental outlook shows that the US credit cycle is recovering while China's credit cycle is fluctuating or weakening, with profitability ranking as US stocks > A-shares > Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - In the structural mainline analysis, AI hardware has higher short-term visibility than applications, with A-shares being more focused on hardware and Hong Kong stocks on applications [1] - Hong Kong stocks offer higher dividend yields compared to A-shares, particularly advantageous for mainland insurance investors who do not need to consider dividend taxes [1] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor catalysts in the first two quarters, driven by US fiscal and monetary policies, and the potential recovery of domestic PPI [1] Group 3 - The recommendation is to use dividends (predominantly from Hong Kong stocks) and AI as a core investment strategy, with A-share hardware showing higher short-term certainty while Hong Kong applications require further catalysts [2] - The first quarter should focus on strong cyclical trading catalysts in sectors like non-ferrous metals, aluminum, chemicals, and machinery, with A-shares having a greater presence than Hong Kong stocks [2] - In the US market, if fiscal and monetary policies are effectively implemented, cyclical stocks may catch up with technology, while small-cap stocks benefiting from cost reduction and economic improvement, as well as financial stocks due to increased credit and deregulation, are also worth attention [2]