突发！30年期国债期货大跌！

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure, with the 30-year treasury futures continuing to decline and yields rising, indicating a shift in market expectations and a reduction in long-term bond allocation by institutions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The 30-year treasury futures fell by 0.71% on December 12 and continued to decline, reaching a low of 111.43, marking a new low in this adjustment cycle [2][5]. - The yield on the 30-year treasury bond has increased to 2.277%, while the 10-year treasury bond yield rose to 1.8575% [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The widening of the yield curve has been noted, with the spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds exceeding 40 basis points [3]. - The bond market has experienced significant volatility this year due to various factors, including the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and changing market expectations as year-end approaches [4][6]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from HSBC Jintrust believe that the recent rise in bond yields is due to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts and a cautious approach from institutions, leading to lower demand for bonds [4]. - Huaxi Securities suggests that the current market conditions may favor long-term bond investments, as the 10-year treasury yield is near its upper limit, and the potential for further adjustments is limited [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Most institutions maintain a conservative short-term outlook for the bond market but remain optimistic about the long-term trend [6]. - Huachuang Securities anticipates that the bond market will likely continue to experience fluctuations, with investors focusing on yield rather than capital gains in the current environment [8].