国泰君安期货：铂钯“异军突起”，和黄金的走势相关性有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The platinum group metals (PGMs) have shown significant activity, with platinum and palladium prices rising sharply following previous increases in gold and silver prices. Platinum futures closed at 482.40 yuan/gram, while palladium futures surged over 4% to 407.60 yuan/gram. The driving factors behind this rise include macroeconomic and geopolitical sentiments, ongoing supply-demand imbalances, and high basis and price spreads [2][9]. Fundamental Analysis - Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Support: The Federal Reserve's easing expectations remain unaltered post-rate cuts, and persistent geopolitical risks have provided upward momentum for PGMs after strong performances in gold and silver [2][9]. - Ongoing Supply-Demand Imbalances: The London platinum and palladium borrowing rates have risen again, leading to tighter liquidity in the spot market. The marginal increase in palladium ETF holdings has further tightened investment demand, reinforcing price upward momentum [2][9]. - High Basis and Price Spreads: Currently, both platinum and palladium basis and domestic-international price spreads are at elevated levels. Continuous accumulation of physical inventory by arbitrage funds has driven up spot prices, which in turn has affected the futures market [2][9]. Correlation with Gold - The correlation between PGMs and gold is primarily due to their collective status as precious metals. Market sentiment towards precious metals can be influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical judgments. In the context of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical factors, the sentiment towards the entire precious metals sector remains strong [11]. - However, there are notable differences between gold and PGMs. From a financial perspective, gold is superior to platinum, which in turn is superior to palladium. Conversely, in terms of industrial applications, palladium leads, followed by platinum and then gold [11][4]. - Generally, when investors seek safety and certainty, gold is favored for its stability. In contrast, during economic recovery or industrial demand booms, platinum and palladium are more attractive due to their strong industrial demand. PGMs can serve as a complement to gold investments, enhancing portfolio flexibility but may involve higher volatility risks [11][4].