Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure, with a significant decline in long-term treasury futures and rising yields, indicating a shift in market expectations and trading dynamics [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 12, the 30-year treasury futures fell by 0.71%, continuing to decline on December 15, reaching a low of 111.43 yuan, marking a new low in the current adjustment cycle [3]. - The yield on the 30-year treasury bond has increased to 2.277%, while the 10-year treasury bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.8575% [5][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The widening of the yield spread between different maturities, particularly the 30-year and 10-year bonds, has exceeded 40 basis points, reflecting increased volatility in the bond market [7]. - Analysts suggest that the recent bond market decline is not primarily due to central bank tightening or liquidity issues, but rather a change in market environment leading to reduced long-term bond allocation by institutions [2][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Most institutions maintain a cautious short-term outlook for the bond market, while remaining optimistic about the long-term trend [9]. - The bond market is expected to face constraints from various factors, including supply dynamics of long-term bonds and expectations of economic recovery, which may limit upward momentum [8][11].
债市承压！30年期国债期货大跌 后续怎么看？
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-12-15 09:37