银河期货：宏观不确定性提升 金银波动放大

Macro News - The U.S. initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 to 236,000, marking the highest increase since March 2020 [1] - The number of continuing claims fell to 1.84 million, representing the largest single-week decline in four years, coinciding with the Thanksgiving holiday [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's FOMC lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [2] - The FOMC's voting results were 9 in favor and 3 against, with some members advocating for maintaining rates or larger cuts [2] - The Fed announced a monthly purchase plan of approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities starting December 12 [2] Economic Projections - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2028, with median growth rates projected at 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively [2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates potential rate cuts of 25 basis points in both 2026 and 2027 [2] Market Reactions - Following a strong performance, precious metals experienced a sudden drop, with gold retreating to around 4300 and silver briefly falling below $61 [3] - Concerns over AI valuation bubbles were triggered by Oracle's disappointing earnings report and delays in data center completions, leading to market volatility [3] - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, as well as central bank meetings in Europe and Japan, may further amplify market fluctuations [3]