四季度主营炼厂成品油产量下降 2026年一季度有望反弹

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the refining industry is experiencing increased maintenance and reduced operational loads as several major refineries enter maintenance periods, leading to a decline in overall processing rates [1] - In October, major refineries such as Zhenhai, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Dajia have begun maintenance on their crude distillation units, while Yunnan and Quanzhou refineries are set for full maintenance in mid-November, contributing to a decrease in operational load [1] - The average operating rate of major refineries in the fourth quarter is reported at 80.87%, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5.06 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The decline in operational load has resulted in lower crude processing and refined oil production in the fourth quarter, with total crude processing amounting to 120.645 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.68%, and total refined oil production at 71.358 million tons, down 5.87% [3] - Gasoline production in the fourth quarter is reported at 27.866 million tons, a decrease of 5.32%, while aviation kerosene production has dropped significantly by 16.72% to 13.477 million tons [3] - Diesel production has seen a smaller decline of 0.59%, totaling 30.015 million tons, attributed to seasonal demand and supply stability measures [3] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, refineries that underwent maintenance are expected to resume operations, while the tight crude supply situation is anticipated to ease, leading to a more stable operational environment for most refineries [5] - The upcoming New Year and Spring Festival holidays are expected to boost refined oil consumption, and there is an expectation of increased refined oil exports following the issuance of new quotas [5] - Overall, multiple factors suggest that the operational load of major refineries is likely to show a growth trend in the first quarter of 2026 [5]