ATFX：金银闯关前夜 一场决定反弹成败的压力测试

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a buildup of momentum as it approaches year-end, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, which remains the strongest support for the bull market in precious metals [3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - Last week, gold and silver reached new highs, with gold increasing over 2% and silver rising more than 6% on a weekly basis [2][10]. - After reaching these highs, both metals experienced a pullback due to a rebound in the US dollar, as investors took profits at elevated levels [2][10]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook remains strong, with gold maintaining its position near historical highs, indicating a healthy technical correction [5][12]. - Silver's momentum is even stronger than gold, having set new highs for five consecutive days, suggesting that any pullback is a natural pause after rapid gains [5][12]. Group 3: Key Support Factors - Confirmation of the monetary policy path is crucial; any indications of further rate cuts or sustained low rates in 2025 will directly benefit gold [6][12]. - Signs of weakening economic data, particularly in employment and consumption, could enhance expectations for quicker and deeper rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, significantly boosting the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [6][12]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Industrial Demand - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties will continue to provide a solid foundation for safe-haven buying of gold [7][13]. - Silver benefits from its dual attributes, with strong industrial demand (in green energy, photovoltaics, and electronics) providing additional upward potential [7][13]. Group 5: Upcoming Economic Indicators - The upcoming US November non-farm payroll report and CPI inflation data will be critical catalysts for determining the market direction before year-end [7][13]. - A scenario of slowing employment combined with cooling inflation would be most favorable for gold and silver, potentially leading to a significant breakout above previous highs [7][13][15]. - Conversely, if employment remains strong and inflation persists, it may lead to skepticism about the Federal Reserve's easing intentions, resulting in a rebound of the dollar and upward pressure on interest rates, which could create selling pressure on precious metals [15].