金银之后，有色接力！铂期货涨停！

Core Viewpoint - The prices of platinum and palladium have surged significantly, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints, with platinum prices increasing by 98.67% since the beginning of the year [3][11]. Group 1: Price Movements and Trends - On December 15, the domestic futures market saw platinum and palladium contracts leading the gains, with platinum 2606 contract hitting the limit up, rising by 7%, and palladium 2606 increasing by 4.73% [1][9]. - Platinum prices have experienced three waves of increases throughout the year, primarily driven by safe-haven buying amid concerns over U.S. tech stock bubbles and weakening dollar credit due to monetary easing [3][11]. - The first wave of price increases occurred from May to July, attributed to a 13% year-on-year decline in South African platinum group metal production due to extreme weather and other disruptions [4][12]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - South Africa, which produces 70% of the world's platinum, is facing significant supply challenges, with production expected to decline by 6% in 2025 due to ongoing power shortages and rising costs [5][11]. - Industrial demand for platinum is projected to grow, with light vehicle production recovery supporting platinum catalyst demand, expected to maintain at 95 tons, accounting for 38% of total demand in 2025 [5][11]. - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a third consecutive year of global platinum market shortages in 2025, with a projected deficit of 30 tons (approximately 964,000 ounces) [5][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that both platinum and palladium have potential for further price increases due to previously low valuations and ongoing supply shortages [5][13]. - The structural shortage of platinum is expected to support higher price levels, with the gold-to-platinum ratio currently at 2.4, significantly above the historical norm of below 1.5 [5][13]. - However, potential bearish factors include delays in Europe's fuel vehicle ban, which may benefit palladium, and a possible increase in platinum supply from the recycling market [6][13].