金银之后，有色接力，铂期货涨停

Core Viewpoint - The prices of platinum and palladium have surged significantly, following the increases in gold and silver prices, with platinum futures reaching a limit up of 7% and palladium up by 4.73% on December 15, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - Platinum futures (PT2606) closed at 482.40, marking a 7% increase from the previous day, with a trading range of 457.00 to 482.40 [2] - Palladium futures (PD2606) closed at 407.60, reflecting a 4.73% rise, with a trading range of 390.00 to 413.65 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Platinum prices have shown a cumulative increase of 98.67% since the beginning of the year, driven by three distinct waves of price increases [3][4] - The first wave occurred from May to July due to production disruptions in South Africa, where platinum output fell by 13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, leading to a tight supply in the international market [4] - The second wave from late August to mid-October was influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, enhancing platinum's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of platinum is expected to decline by 6% in 2025, primarily due to ongoing power shortages and rising costs in South Africa, which produces 70% of the world's platinum [4][5] - Industrial demand for platinum is projected to grow, with the automotive sector maintaining a significant demand for catalytic converters, expected to reach 95 tons in 2025 [5] - The global platinum market is anticipated to face a third consecutive year of shortage, with a projected deficit of 30 tons in 2025 [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that both platinum and palladium prices have potential for further increases due to their previous low valuations and ongoing supply shortages [5][6] - The structural shortage of platinum is expected to support higher price levels, with the gold-to-platinum ratio currently above historical norms [6] - However, potential risks include delays in the European fuel vehicle ban, which could benefit palladium, and the recovery of the recycling market, which may increase platinum supply [6][7]