2026年美联储政策路径之争升温，债市博弈加剧

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing intense debate regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, with expectations for two cuts next year despite persistent inflation [1][7] - Key economic data, including non-farm employment and inflation figures, are set to be released, which will help clarify the Fed's monetary policy direction [1][3] - The two-year Treasury yield is around 3.5%, while the ten-year yield is approximately 4.2%, following a recent 25 basis point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate [2][8] Group 2 - Economists predict that the U.S. will add 50,000 non-farm jobs in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since 2021 [3][9] - The upcoming employment report is seen as crucial, with potential implications for the timing of future rate cuts, particularly if job numbers decline [10][12] - The Fed's current benchmark rate is viewed as being within a neutral range, limiting further easing options [4][11] Group 3 - Internal divisions among Fed officials exist regarding policy direction, with some calling for more data before making decisions [6][12] - The potential appointment of a new Fed chair, as Jerome Powell's term ends in May, could shift the Fed's policy stance towards a more dovish approach [12] - Employment market performance may serve as a justification for rate cuts, even with slight signs of weakness [12]