ZFX山海证券:8万美元成比特币强支撑

Core Insights - Bitcoin has shown resilience around the $80,000 mark, supported by various on-chain and funding structure indicators, indicating this area has evolved into a significant defensive zone for the mid-term market [1][3]. Market Structure - The real market average during the recent adjustment has stabilized around $81,000, reflecting the psychological cost for short to mid-term traders [4]. - The cost basis for U.S. spot ETFs has formed effective support around $83,000, representing the average entry point for institutional funds, which typically exhibit more sustained defensive behavior [4]. - The annual cost basis for 2024 is also concentrated around $83,000, indicating a balance point for new capital in an upward cycle, suggesting strong demand and risk buffer at this price level [4]. Price Movement - Bitcoin has rebounded from its low to above $90,000, achieving an approximate 15% increase, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and risk appetite following the confirmation of key support [2][4]. - The $80,000 to $84,000 range has become a crucial structural support zone, expected to act as a primary defense against price pullbacks, provided there are no significant macroeconomic or liquidity shocks [5].