RadexMarkets瑞德克斯:日央行加息与比特币压力

Group 1 - The market is closely watching the upcoming interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan, with a potential increase to 0.75% marking a significant shift from the low-cost yen funding era [1][3] - Historical trends show a clear correlation between yen exchange rate changes and Bitcoin prices, with a stronger yen typically indicating rising global funding costs and tightening liquidity, which tends to pressure Bitcoin as a high liquidity-sensitive asset [1][3] - The long-standing low interest rate environment in Japan has provided stable "funding currency" for global capital; an increase in rates may reduce the attractiveness of borrowing yen for high-risk asset allocation, potentially leading to reduced leverage or position adjustments in the stock market, which could impact crypto assets [1][4] Group 2 - The current strong yen is already imposing certain constraints on market sentiment [1][3] - The recent interest rate hike may not replicate past shock patterns, as market expectations have already been reflected in positioning, limiting the potential for panic selling in the short term [4] - The U.S. monetary environment is becoming more accommodative, mitigating some of the tightening effects from Japan, and the probability of severe risk clearing before year-end is relatively controlled, although Bitcoin cannot completely ignore external rate shocks [2][4] - Future market dynamics will require close monitoring of fiscal and inflation expectations against a backdrop of high debt; any doubts about long-term stability could enhance the interlinkages between exchange rates, bond yields, and risk assets, significantly affecting crypto market volatility [2][4]