日本央行关键薪资报告定调：周五加息板上钉钉

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has indicated further progress in wage growth, which is a key factor for potential interest rate hikes this week [1][2] - A report from the BOJ shows that most companies expect to raise wages in FY2026 at a rate similar to FY2025, which was a period of significant wage increases [1][2] - Market expectations for an interest rate hike to 0.75% are high, with traders estimating a 94% probability of this occurring [2] Group 2: Economic Confidence and Wage Negotiations - Confidence among Japan's largest manufacturers has risen for the third consecutive quarter, reaching a four-year high, while non-manufacturing data remains near its highest level since the early 1990s [1] - The largest labor union in Japan, Rengo, achieved its highest wage increase in nearly 30 years and aims for at least a 5% wage increase in the upcoming negotiations [2] Group 3: ETF and J-REITs Sales - The BOJ may begin selling its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as early as next month, with a plan to sell at a rate of approximately 3.3 trillion yen annually [8][11] - The total value of the BOJ's ETF holdings is reported to be 37.1 trillion yen on the books, with a market value of 83 trillion yen (approximately $534 billion) [8] - The sale of ETFs and Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) is seen as a significant step towards normalizing monetary policy after a prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary conditions [11]