Core Viewpoint - The latest financial data from the central bank indicates a significant slowdown in the growth of RMB deposits in November, with non-bank deposits experiencing a year-on-year decrease for the second consecutive month, suggesting a potential continuation of the "deposit migration" trend towards capital markets [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In November, non-bank deposits increased by 80 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 100 billion yuan, indicating a trend of reduced deposits across various sectors including households, enterprises, and fiscal deposits [1]. - For the first eleven months of the year, financial institutions added a total of 24.73 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, with non-bank deposits showing a year-on-year increase of 980 billion yuan [2]. - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to continue, driven by factors such as declining deposit rates and increasing risk appetite among residents [5][6]. Group 2: Future Projections - In 2026, approximately 171 trillion yuan in household deposits will mature, an increase of 18 trillion yuan compared to 2025, with a significant portion of these deposits expected to be reallocated due to changes in interest rates [6]. - A decrease in the savings rate by 1 percentage point could potentially release an additional 900 billion yuan into investment areas such as wealth management, funds, insurance, and real estate [7]. - The anticipated decline in long-term deposit options and the pressure on banks' interest margins may further accelerate the "deposit migration" trend in the coming years [5][6].
32万亿中长期定存明年到期，“存款搬家”有望持续