美最高法院裁决在即！3500亿美元关税面临三大剧本

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme Court is expected to soon rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which will have significant implications for presidential power, but the market impact is anticipated to be limited [1][11]. Group 1: Legal Context and Implications - The case revolves around the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which currently range from 10% to 40% [1][11]. - Lower courts have previously ruled the IEEPA tariffs illegal, prompting the government to appeal to the Supreme Court, which has consolidated the cases for review [1][11]. - The ruling will address the separation of powers between Congress and the executive branch, potentially affecting broader policy beyond trade [1][11]. Group 2: Possible Outcomes - Scenario One: Mixed Ruling The Court may rule that the "reciprocal" tariffs under IEEPA are illegal while allowing tariffs related to national security issues, such as those on fentanyl [3][13]. - Scenario Two: IEEPA Tariffs Ruled Illegal If the Court finds the IEEPA tariffs illegal, it may lead to discussions on refunds for tariffs already paid, which could complicate administrative processes for U.S. Customs and Border Protection [5][15]. - Scenario Three: Tariffs Maintained The Court could uphold the government's use of IEEPA, reversing lower court decisions, which would signify a shift of power from Congress to the executive branch, potentially increasing volatility in future administrations [7][17]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The annual tariff revenue is estimated at $350 billion, and a ruling against the tariffs could raise concerns about long-term fiscal health and increase long-term bond yields [6][15]. - Oxford Economics estimates that a complete removal of tariffs could lower the effective tariff rate by nearly 5 percentage points, providing a modest boost of 0.2 percentage points to global economic growth next year [6][16]. - Despite potential tariff reversals, the government may find alternative ways to impose tariffs, as indicated by the U.S. Trade Representative [6][16]. Group 4: Future Trade Strategies - Analysts suggest that if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, the government could explore other avenues to recover lost tariff revenue, including investigations into unfair trade practices [7][17]. - The administration may also maintain preliminary trade agreements, as these involve national security and other issues, making them difficult to dismantle [8][18]. - The government has prepared a range of industry-specific tariffs to maintain initial agreements and limit retaliation, although public dissatisfaction with the economy may hinder further tariff increases [9][19].