Monthly Cotton Economic Newsletter: December 2025

Recent Price Movement - Most cotton benchmarks remained stable over the past month [1] Supply, Demand & Trade - USDA estimates show a slight reduction in global production by 292,000 bales to 119.8 million and mill use by 275,000 bales to 118.6 million for 2025/26. World beginning stocks were slightly increased by 127,000 bales to 74.6 million, resulting in a minor net effect on ending stocks, which increased by 42,000 bales to 76.0 million [2] - The largest changes in production figures were for Mali, reduced by 280,000 bales to 820,000, and the U.S., increased by 153,000 bales to 14.3 million. For mill use, Brazil saw a reduction of 100,000 bales to 3.4 million, and the U.S. also decreased by 100,000 bales to 1.6 million [3] - Global trade figures were reduced by 275,000 bales to 43.7 million. The largest import changes were for Bangladesh, down by 100,000 bales to 8.0 million, and Vietnam, down by 100,000 bales to 8.1 million. Mali's exports were reduced by 150,000 bales to 900,000 [4] Price Outlook - Following the reopening of the U.S. government, previously disrupted data streams have resumed. During the 43-day government shutdown, cotton prices decreased, with the NY/ICE contract dropping from over 67 cents/lb to near 63 cents [5] - The shutdown is not seen as a significant factor in price movement; however, the release of government data during this period highlighted other factors, such as increased production estimates for China, Brazil, and the U.S., indicating ample exportable supply relative to import demand [6] - By late November, the NY/ICE March contract tested levels near 65 cents/lb but retreated to around 63 cents. The A Index decreased from 76 to 74 cents/lb. The Chinese Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) was steady, moving slightly higher from 94 to 96 cents/lb, with domestic values between 14,750 and 15,000 RMB/ton. The RMB strengthened slightly against the dollar from 7.12 to 7.07 RMB/USD. Indian spot prices remained near 74 cents/lb or approximately 52,000 INR/candy, with the INR trading around 89 INR/USD. Pakistani spot prices were steady near 66 cents/lb or 15,300 PKR/maund, with the PKR around 281 PKR/USD [7]