日本薪资增长势头延续 暗示央行加息门槛已满足

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's report indicates strong wage growth momentum despite U.S. tariffs, which is a key consideration for the central bank's interest rate hike this week [1][2]. Group 1: Wage Growth - The Bank of Japan states that most reports from headquarters and branches indicate that companies expect wage increases for the fiscal year 2026 to be consistent with the high wage growth achieved in fiscal year 2025 [1][2]. - The central bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, mentioned earlier this month that the bank will actively collect wage growth data to make appropriate decisions regarding interest rate hikes at the meeting ending this Friday [1][2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The positive findings in the report make it easier for Governor Ueda to justify raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, a decision anticipated by 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg [1][2]. - According to overnight swap market pricing, traders estimate a 94% probability of an interest rate hike this week [1][2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Sentiment - On Monday, the yen outperformed other G-10 currencies as investors increased bets on the Bank of Japan raising interest rates later this week, with the yen rising 0.4% to 155.15 yen per dollar as of 5:38 PM Tokyo time [1][2]. - The quarterly Tankan survey released by the Bank of Japan shows that confidence among large manufacturers has reached a four-year high, reinforcing market expectations for a rate hike [1][2]. - The Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hirokazu Matsuno, stated that the specific implementation of monetary policy should be decided by the Bank of Japan [1][2].