Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-15 13:06Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has returned to a "good news is bad news, bad news is good news" scenario, where a strong labor market, while beneficial for the economy, reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Data and Market Reactions - Upcoming U.S. employment data is expected to show a modest increase of 50,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, indicating a weak but not rapidly deteriorating labor market [3][8]. - The MSCI All Country World Index reached a historical high following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on December 10, driven by enthusiasm for advancements in artificial intelligence and expectations of loose monetary policy [3][8]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed optimism about the U.S. economy strengthening as tariff-related inflation effects diminish, with a projected economic growth of 2.3% for next year, up from a previous forecast of 1.8% [3][8]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Strategies - Citigroup's strategists predict a double-digit growth for U.S. stocks next year, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 12% to 7,700 points by the end of 2026, supported by strong corporate earnings and expectations of loose monetary policy [4][9]. - The overall supportive stance of the Federal Reserve is a key assumption in the investment strategy outlined by Citigroup [10].