油脂有“料”： 棕榈油及大豆供应宽松抑制豆油涨幅

Core Viewpoint - The international oilseed market in December is under pressure due to two supply and demand reports, while domestic measures such as the auction of imported soybeans have alleviated raw material supply concerns, leading to a downward pressure on soybean oil prices. However, recent strength in canola oil provides some bottom support, and it is expected that domestic soybean oil prices will stabilize in a narrow range before the Spring Festival [1]. Group 1: Domestic Soybean Oil Market Trends - In early to mid-December, the domestic soybean oil market experienced a slight decline, with prices at 8,470 yuan/ton as of December 11, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the beginning of the month. This was influenced by poor supply and demand data from Malaysia's palm oil market, a neutral to bearish USDA report, and the auction of imported soybeans that eased supply concerns [2][4]. - Domestic soybean oil inventory remains high, limiting price increases. As of December 5, port soybean oil stocks were at 1.1049 million tons, down 3.97% from the previous period but still at a five-year high. This high inventory level restricts the upward potential of soybean oil prices [6][14]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Reports Impact - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicated stable soybean data, with production and ending stocks remaining steady. Brazil's ending stocks increased by 150,000 tons, contributing to a neutral to bearish outlook for the soybean market, which in turn suppresses soybean oil prices [4][12]. - Malaysia's palm oil supply and demand report showed a decrease in production but still at high levels, with ending stocks rising to 2.8354 million tons, up 13.04% from the previous month, significantly exceeding market expectations. This continued oversupply in the palm oil market adds bearish pressure on soybean oil prices [4][12]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board predicts that palm oil production may exceed 20 million tons for the first time in history, with expectations of a slight increase in stocks by the end of December. This oversupply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term, contributing to downward pressure on soybean oil prices [9][16]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to support soybean oil prices, with predictions of a narrow trading range between 8,350 and 8,700 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by mixed factors, including the recent rise in canola oil prices and stable demand conditions [10][17].