动力煤跌破800元/吨后持续下探，今年煤市旺季为何不旺？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that thermal coal prices are continuing to decline, with the price at Qinhuangdao Port dropping below 800 yuan/ton and further decreasing to 745 yuan/ton as of December 12, marking a month-on-month decline of approximately 90 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of about 50 yuan/ton [1][3] - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port for the year is reported to be 697.03 yuan/ton, which is over 150 yuan/ton lower than the average price for the entire year of 2024 [3] - The China Electricity Council attributes the pressure on the coal market to high inventory levels and lower-than-usual daily consumption, indicating a struggle between high inventory and weak demand against expectations for a winter peak in coal usage [3] Group 2 - On the supply side, coal production in China has seen stable growth this year, while import volumes have significantly decreased, with November coal imports down by 19.9% year-on-year [3][4] - In November, the coal production reached 4.3 billion tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while the cumulative coal production from January to November was 4.4 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [3] - The inventory levels at northern ports have risen to approximately 29 million tons, an increase of nearly 600,000 tons or 25% since early November [5] Group 3 - Electricity production in November showed growth, but thermal power generation shifted from growth to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% in industrial thermal power generation [4][5] - Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower have seen significant year-on-year growth, with solar power increasing by 23.4% and wind power by 22% [5] - The current high temperatures across the country have reduced the demand for coal during the winter peak season, leading to a bearish outlook for coal prices [6] Group 4 - Analysts from various securities firms suggest that coal prices will remain under pressure in the short term due to high inventory levels and insufficient demand from the winter heating season [6] - The potential for a rise in coal prices may depend on unexpected drops in temperatures in December and January, which could increase residential electricity demand and subsequently boost coal consumption [6]