【华创食饮】茅五亮牌，指向何方？

Core Viewpoint - Recent decline in high-end liquor prices has raised concerns in the market, with the liquor sector experiencing a roughly 7% pullback this month. Major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have introduced new policies to address these concerns and stabilize the market [2][38]. Group 1: Industry Supply and Demand - The urgent need for supply-demand rebalancing in the industry is highlighted by the significant drop in Moutai prices, which reflects the pressure on demand and increasing concerns about future performance [10][44]. - The decline in Moutai prices from 1575 yuan to around 1500 yuan and Wuliangye's drop from 800-810 yuan to 780 yuan indicates a broader market trend of declining prices due to excess supply and weak demand [44]. Group 2: Moutai's Strategy - Moutai is implementing a strategy to control supply and restore confidence among distributors, with recent meetings across provinces to communicate new marketing policies. The price of Moutai has rebounded to around 1600 yuan after hitting a low of 1500 yuan [2][18]. - The company plans to stop the allocation of Moutai quotas that are not part of the 2025 plan and will not emphasize early sales, aiming to reduce distributor inventory pressure [20][21]. - Moutai's future growth is expected to be challenging, with a focus on high-value products to increase prices while ensuring distributor profitability [21][39]. Group 3: Wuliangye's Approach - Wuliangye has introduced a series of measures to support distributors, including a price adjustment for its flagship product to 900 yuan, marking the first change in payment policy since 2014 [39][24]. - The company is offering various incentives to distributors, which can cumulatively provide nearly 100 yuan per bottle in subsidies, effectively enhancing distributor profits [39][24]. - Wuliangye is also focusing on digital management to improve turnover and strengthen the relationship between channels and terminals, which is crucial for market recovery [39][24]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The industry is expected to prioritize volume over price in the coming year, with sales dynamics being the key determinant of success. Moutai's price stability will set the industry's ceiling, while Wuliangye will influence the speed of market clearing [39][40]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is seen as a critical period for assessing market recovery and inventory clearance, with expectations that prices will stabilize post-holiday [39][40].