ETF日报：目前养殖业处于典型“弱现实、强预期”阶段，行业产能大趋势已经确立

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a downward trend today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3867.92 points, down 0.55%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13112.09 points, down 1.10% [1][11] - Total trading volume in the two markets was less than 1.8 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day [1][11] - The overall market saw more declines than gains, with non-bank financials rising during the day while electronics and telecommunications sectors led the decline [1][11] Economic and Policy Environment - The current economic and policy environment for A-shares remains positive, with expectations for fiscal spending to support a recovery in total economic demand [3][13] - In the medium term, with the implementation of various growth stabilization measures and loose monetary and fiscal policies, total demand growth is expected to return to an expansionary range, potentially leading A-shares into an upward cycle [3][13] Fixed Asset Investment and Debt Market - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment has dropped to -2.6%, the lowest since 2021, with real estate investment declining over 30% year-on-year in a single month [4][14] - The economic structure continues to exhibit strong supply, weak demand, and low inflation characteristics, which is marginally beneficial for the bond market [4][14] - Although sentiment in the bond market remains weak, signs of stabilization are beginning to emerge, with supply pressures expected to ease in the near term [4][14] - The 10-year government bond yield has surpassed the upper limit of the central bank's acceptable range at 1.85%, with downward momentum expected to outweigh upward pressure [4][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with the industry currently in a "weak reality, strong expectation" phase, and overall capacity trends established [4][14] - In the pig cycle, the number of breeding sows has been continuously reduced due to long-term losses and policy guidance, with supply pressure expected to significantly ease by the second half of 2026 [5][15] - In poultry farming, the supply of white chickens has slightly increased, while yellow chicken supply remains at a low level, likely benefiting from improved domestic demand [5][15] - Investing in livestock ETFs can effectively mitigate risks associated with individual companies and capture the beta returns from the industry's cyclical reversal [5][15] Gold Sector - The gold sector performed well today, with COMEX gold surpassing 4370, and gold ETFs showing increases of 1.37% and 1.28% [6][16] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiate reserve management purchases is expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [6][16][17] - Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations and U.S. pressure on Venezuela, continue to create uncertainty that may support gold prices [6][16][17] Dividend and Long-term Investment Strategies - The recent market volatility has led to a cautious investor behavior, with some funds shifting from aggressive to defensive strategies, benefiting dividend stocks as a safe haven [7][17] - Regulatory changes encouraging cash dividends and long-term capital inflows are expected to enhance the demand for dividend assets [7][17][18] - The new "National Nine Articles" and market value management policies are likely to promote stable dividend expectations, benefiting state-owned enterprises and enhancing their valuation [7][18]